FCPO Setup 12 April 2016

What have you been missing so far.

"Wonder what is the U shape curve above or below a certain candle above this daily chart ? That is called a turning points for current June contract. Notice that the market usually always go into a ranging period or a sideways period before continue to head into that direction. Example the first curve above on Feb 12th to Feb 19th before heading down to for some retracement. Another curve would be located below the candles from March 2nd to 4th, see how the price rebounded a few times and gradually rally from that low ? The final curve would be situated above few candles happen on 29 March to 5th April before the June contract came down for some major retracement. My point is, there is no base for us to expect any curve yet, in another words, there is still no sign of any price recovery. What we can expect now would be getting Short when the price recover, the higher the better. Palm oil futures is likely open higher with soy oil recent surge. The soy oil for May contract suddenly surge about 0.27 cents from 33.87 cents yesterday evening to 34.14 cents this morning. While most of the fundamental is gradually shifting to neutral, we are still accessing the impact of yesterday MPOB palm oil increase production report. Malaysia is still manage to record higher production even with this hotter weather while Indonesia is having production cut everywhere up to 60% and could last until this June 2016. Crude oil hit $41 per barrel overnight, maybe that would serve some sort of barometer to overall commodities prices around the world. For today, range for June contract likely 2645~2690." 
-The article above is part of my daily news letter.

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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FCPO: 4 August 2015 FCPO Made New Monthly Low

FCPO- Its A New LOW, And Its Not Over Yet.

Palm oil futures dropped to new monthly low yesterday, marking a stronger than expected Bearish momentum. This massive Sell-off might due to panic Long covering by those bargain hunters that thought it will be a good idea to Buy anything at low price. Yesterday, bargain hunters paid the price as FCPO Oct continue to go down, hitting low at 2049. That was 60 points Sell-off in a single day, the market is telling you something and I do not think it is telling you to Buy. But who cares, that is how market moved, none of the traders think the same, everyone has their own mind, worse their own opinion. It is a progress for the FCPO to went down yesterday, it is good for those trend hunters because this might mean a good sign for a down trend as benchmark month has break down below the previous major range period. No one knows where does this new break down will take us, a prolong down trend perhaps. I do hope so it would give us another one or two hundreds points down from here. The points here is, market can go lower than where it stop yesterday.

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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FCPO Technical Outlook 20112009

Good Morning, lets get into business. Lets roll the news 1st. 

-Dow Jones retreated by 93.87 to 10332.44, having more distance with its 13month high. Dow Jones taking a breathe after reaching its 13month high, also market on speculation that the surge in stock market is already outpaced the real economic growth. The tumble in oil prices and yields on treasury 3month bills turned negative gave some pressure on the market upward momentum.

-Many among exporters said export demand may continue to rise if bad weather conditions continue in key oilseed-growing areas in the region, threatening to disrupt harvest and leading to a possible tightness in global vegetable oils supply. Thunderstorms and rains have affected Malaysia's oil palm growing regions over the past few days and may lead to localized flooding in Johor, the country's key growing region. - Dow Jones Newswires

-Crude oil traded below $78 a barrel in New York after falling yesterday as the dollar strengthened and amid concerns about the pace of recovery in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer. NYMEX crude oil for December delivery fell $2.12, or 2.7 percent, to $77.46, the biggest decline since Nov. 12.

FCPO Daily Chart

Yesterday correction was a vital sign of a healthy uptrend. We may not see another round of correction as bullish momentum on soya bean and soya oil. Possible strategy at the moment would be buy into weakness, if the market gap up lets see if it could 2,420.Breaking this level would mean another new high for CPO, which will be another indication of strong uptrend.

Soya Bean Daily Chart

Resistance trendline break ! It should give some support to CPO and commodities prices.

Crude Oil Daily Chart

Steady climb for Crude oil price, but I expect crude to soften or correct as previous week price behavior was unable to remain steady above $80 per barrel.

Disclaimer: The author is not liable for any loss incur due to this write up and trade recommendations made by this websites.

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FCPO Technical Outlook

Good Morning ya' all, todays menu on equity would MAXIS listing, that would the headlines for any business section on any major newspaper today.

-Dow Jones down marginally by 11.11 points to 10426.31, after earnings of technology companies is below the expectation, dragging down Dow Jones from its 13months high. Market expectation has risen after series of positive earnings have been reported. Meanwhile crude oil gained for the 3rd day after industry report showed US stockpiles declined after a Gulf of Mexico hurricane, the fall in value of dollar also make commodities a way to hedge against inflation.

-The weather bureau also upgraded a heavy rain alert for Kelantan and Terengganu areas, stating heavy rains will likely continue until next Tuesday in several areas and may cause floods in areas near rivers. While the current monsoon isn't likely to eat into palm oil stocks, sentiment is being affected as floods and heavy rains may disrupt oil palm harvesting. -By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires.

-Oil traded near $80 a barrel in New York after rising yesterday as a government report showed U.S. crude and fuel supplies dropped along with refinery production and imports. NYMEX crude oil for December delivery rose 44 cents to settle at $79.58.

FCPO Daily Chart

Told ya its an uptrend, break away gap confirmed, oscillator with higher high formation, uptrend confirmed! Let see how high this baby can go. Target retracement level would be 2,525 based on Fib projection of 161.8%.

Disclaimer: The author is not liable for any loss incur due to this write up and trade recommendations made by this websites.

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FCPO Technical Outlook

Good Morning all, yesterday palm oil price took a breather and its quite volatile through the end of the trading day. Let see how it will re-act today. As traditional technical analysis often used previous price behavior to made any futures price direction, I would emphasize on how well it could tell me to act immediately. Its not a science as you wont get any accurate reading on price direction no matter how well you can analyse the market. resistance and support are meant to be breach and if it does not, price might hovering in crappy range trading. News coming through:

-US Dow Jones gained 30.46 points to 10437.42 in yesterday trading, Dow Jones gained for the 3rd day as rebound in metal prices boosted commodity producers share prices. Investors in the market are optimistic currently and believing the market still have more room to go higher. Goldman Sachs said it will be teaming up with Warren Buffet to provide assistance to 10000 small businesses in the US, which small businesses play an important role in creating jobs and growth of a country's economy.

-Palm oil prices will likely be supported by weather concerns, as heavy rains and floods may disrupt harvesting activity in oil palm estates. -By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires.

-Oil advanced for a third day in New York after an industry report showed a decline in crude stockpiles in the U.S., the largest energy consumer. Crude oil for December delivery rose 24 cents to settle at $79.14.

FCPO Daily chart

The term 'all gaps will be fill eventually' might not happen in this case. I am somewhat susceptible that this gap will be fill judging from the positive sentiment in the commodities market. If price does fall, maybe 50% of it would be fill. Now, technical analysis are not going to tell me for sure whether price is going to gap up or gap down, but in this case if the price do gap down not too much from yesterday close it might attempt to close the gap. Either way, I am still bullish on palm oil and this uptrend. None any trend will travel on straight line, it always comes with some 'nasty' retracement, correction, pullback, squeezing, hammering, shaking, etc before you can see a clear direction on that trend. If you are serious about trading, its your job to filter out all these 'noise' in the market. Good Luck comrade.
Disclaimer: The author is not liable for any loss incur due to this write up and trade recommendations made by this websites.

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FCPO Report

Morning everyone, was sick yesterday, though I was a goner that time because there is abundant of H1N1 cases at my work place, Gulp. Luckily, there is no fever. Right now, its news time. 

-U.S. stocks rallied, sending benchmark indexes to 13-month highs, and commodities gained as retail sales rebounded and Asian government leaders pledged to maintain economic stimulus spending. The dollar fell to a 15- month low and Treasury two-year yields touched the lowest level since January.

-Crude oil traded near $79 a barrel in New York after rising the most in six weeks on optimism fuel demand will increase amid improved prospects for an economic recovery in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer. Crude oil for December delivery rose $2.55 to settle at $78.90, the biggest gain since Sept. 30.

-In other news, India's vegetable oil imports in the marketing year ended Oct. 31 rose 37% to record high of 8.66 million tons, total edible oil imports were also up 46% at 8.18 million tons. -The Solvent Extractors' Association of India 

FCPO Daily Chart

From here, it looks like the beginning of wave 3 formation after the break away gap and also price ranged break on yesterday open. The next retracement or resistance level might be 2,506 based on Fib level (161.8%). Well, its not a science so beware when counter trading against any trend. Always look a chance to buy in this market.
Disclaimer: The author is not liable for any loss incur due to this write up and trade recommendations made by this websites.

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Crude Palm Oil futures outlook

Good morning everyone, usually I will update my blog once every morning because that is the time I find it I am capable of doing so. Ok, 1st things 1st, the news.

-U.S. equity benchmark indexes fell from 13-month highs as energy shares slumped following bigger- than-estimated growth in oil stockpiles, erasing an earlier advance spurred by Hewlett-Packard Co.’s takeover of 3Com Corp. The dollar rose the most versus the euro since August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 93.79 points, or 0.9 percent, to 10,197.47. Eight stocks retreated for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

-Palm oil production will be slow down at the moment as heavy rains have been falling regularly over the states of Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang, and the Malaysian Meteorological Department has issued an alert saying that rains are likely to continue until next week.

-Crude oil traded near $77 a barrel in New York and is poised for its second weekly decline in three on signs fuel demand is slowing in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer. Crude oil for December delivery fell $2.34 to $76.94, the lowest settlement since Oct. 14.

FCPO Daily Chart

For CPO, still hovering within range. While break out or break down is imminent, pay attention to the candle and volume that make the breach the price range. I am still bullish for CPO as demand keep going up (based on previous export figure).
Disclaimer: The author will not liable for any loss incur in this write up or any trade recommendation made in this websites.

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