6 March 2017: FCPO Commentary

3rd March 2017: Soy Oil Traded 0.20 Cents Higher, On-Shore Ringgit Traded Unchanged @ RM4.4565 Per USD.

I remember a few successful traders mentioned about foreseeing what others would pay less attention to is what determined a great trend trader. I could not really grasp that set of skill yet till today, probably I rely much on the mechanical system to decide what is my next course of action. What is coming next on menu would likely be the tendency of Feds raising rates. According to the poll conducted on mainstream media such as Reuters and Bloomberg, Feds will likely raise another rates this month, the percentage is ranging from 70% to 85%. With that in mind, Ringgit is likely taking more hits and weaken further. Traders are likely Bullish if Ringgit deppreaciate further and paving more possibilities for further price recovery. Of course it is not a science or a certainty that price will go up due to Ringgit weakness, but very likely. Trade #198 hit full SL when that Short setup eventually have to deal with price rally in the afternoon session. A few while after trade #198, I had a Long setup for trade #199 which is to Buy at 2,857 level. Fast forward to 5.30PM I had exit and manage to took out some small gain for trade #199 as I am not going to hold any Long position when the price is below 21-days EMA. I have been using this strategy since late Oct last year and will be doing some review once it hit six months. I have done some tweaking within these period so that this strategy can cope with ever changing market volatility. Still, I believe there is much things I can do to make this strategy better. Finding the right risk management rules or sweet spot for money management is an never ending quest, but I believe we will all learn something valuable along the process. Recent export figure is something we need to look at, Palm oil shipments from Malaysia, the world's second-largest palm oil producer after Indonesia, fell between 12 percent and 14.2 percent in February from a month earlier, according to data from cargo surveyors on last Tuesday. For today, palm oil futures is likely open higher amid soy oil overnight recovery. The soy oil for May contract was traded 0.20 cents higher to 34.34 cents this morning. Range for May contract is likely moving within 2,850 ~ 2,900.

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.