FCPO First Sign Of Recovery ? 12th Nov 2013

Tuesday, 12th Nov 2013. Palm oil futures is showing signs of further recovery yesterday when it recover up to 2,551 level, the high of last Friday. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks crept higher on Monday, giving the Dow Jones Industrial Average its 35th record close this year. 

• The numbers: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.14%  rose 21.32 points, or 0.1%, to finish at 15,783.10, topping its prior record close from Friday. The S&P 500 SPX +0.07%  edged up 1.28 points, or 0.1%, to end at 1,771.89, just below its record close of 1,771.95 hit on Oct. 29. The Nasdaq Composite tacked on 0.56 point to close at 3,919.79."

"-Japanese stocks jumped Monday, as Friday’s surprisingly strong U.S. jobs data boosted the dollar against the yen, while Hong Kong was boosted by positive economic data from China. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.30% fell 0.3% to 5387.10, South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU +0.85% was down 0.4% at 1977.30 and Indonesia’s JSX was down 0.8% late in Asia. Chinese stocks were little moved early in the session, though they picked up as the session progressed, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +1.43% ending with substantial gains on a day marked by thin volumes. The index closed up 1.4% to 23069.85, while the Shanghai Composite CN:SHCOMP +0.16%added just 0.2% to 2109.47."

"- Oil futures ended higher on Monday, with Brent crude rebounding from a four-month low after talks aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program in return for eased sanctions against the oil producer stalled. December crude futures CLZ3 -0.20%  erased an earlier loss to close at $95.14 a barrel, posting a gain of 54 cents on the New York Mercantile Exchange."

"-January Soybeans finished up 5 at 1301, 3 3/4 off the high and 12 3/4 up from the low. March Soybeans closed up 5 at 1281 3/4. This was 13 up from the low and 3 1/4 off the high.

December Soymeal closed down 0.2 at 422.1. This was 4.8 up from the low and 1.8 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished up 0.18 at 40.42, 0.13 off the high and 0.29 up from the low. January soybeans closed 5 cents higher on the day and experienced a the highest close since October 24th. The market traded as much as 7 3/4 cents lower on the day early but found solid buying support from speculators to grind higher on the day. Strong gains in corn and talk that export and crush is running at a very fast pace to start the season helped to support. Talk of increased producer selling due to active harvest recently and the surge higher in prices last week helped to pressure. There were 65 new deliveries against the November futures overnight which may have added to the negative tone early. Open interest was up 3,265 contracts Friday to 573,147. December meal closed just slightly lower on the day and near the highs. The market closed up $30.3 from last weeks lows. December oil closed 18 higher on the day. Weather conditions in the US and South America appear to be a bearish force. Harvest progress will be released tomorrow due to holiday with traders looking for harvest near 92% complete."

FCPO- Bulls Is Only Showing Its Horn.

Yes, that is right, the bull is only showing its horn, just a glimpse, nothing more and you are telling me it is going up for sure ? Small market talk aside, lets look at the fundamental news announced by MPOB and cargo surveyors.  Palm oil output in Malaysia, the world’s second-largest producer, climbed to the highest level in more than year in October, exceeding analysts’ expectations and boosting stockpiles to a six-month high. Production gained 3.1 percent to 1.97 million metric tons from a month earlier, the highest since September 2012, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said today. Inventories rose 3.5 percent to 1.85 million tons, the largest since April, while exports gained 3.3 percent to 1.66 million tons. That compares with the median estimates of 1.87 million tons for output, 1.84 million tons for reserves and 1.6 million tons for exports in a Bloomberg survey published last week. Production of the tropical oil, used in everything from candy to bio-fuel, is typically highest from July to October because of growing cycles. Output may drop  in November. Shipments from Malaysia fell 13 percent to 472,321 tons in the first 10 days of November from the same period last month, surveyor Intertek said yesterday.
If the fundamental should tell you something it should be Bearish, at least for the month of Nov unless we are looking at improve export figures in the upcoming 15th Nov from cargo surveyors. Technically, we are looking at the first sign of recovery judging on hourly chart shown above. The ability for the market to rebound above 2,500 was an early sign that the Bears are re-acting to the psychological support level but it would be all different scenario if the benchmark Jan manage to breach below 2,500 this week. In other words, more upside confirmation can be obtain if the Jan contract went up above 2,552 level this month. For today, pivot support for the benchmark Jan is located around 2,517 followed by 2,506 while resistance is pegged at 2,543.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2558
R1= 2543
S1= 2517
S2= 2506
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.