Thursday, 29th Aug 2013. The benchmark Nov continue to rise this week and topple almost any resistance it can come across. The latest was reaching the six weeks high around 2,484 level yesterday. Other news to follow.
"-U.S. stocks on Wednesday advanced for the first session this week, with oil producers leading the gains as the price of crude settled at a more-than-two-year high above $110 a barrel. The S&P 500 index SPX +0.28% gained 4.48 points, or 0.3%, to 1,634.96, with energy leading gains among its 10 major sectors. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.41% rose 14.83 points, or 0.4%, to 3,593.34."
"-Asian stocks slumped Wednesday after heightened fears of U.S.-led military intervention in Syria sparked a selloff in global markets, with Philippine shares and the Indian rupee plunging amid worries about emerging markets. Among the region’s developed markets, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK +0.27% finished the day 1.5% lower and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO -0.38% dropped 1.1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -1.60% fell 1.6%. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU +0.68% and China’s Shanghai CompositeCN:SHCOMP -0.11% slipped 0.1% each."
"-Oil futures climbed above $110 a barrel on Wednesday tolog their highest close in more than two years as uncertainty over Syria contributed to worries about oil supply from the region. October crude CLV3 -0.85% added $1.09, or 1%, to settle at $110.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "
"-November Soybeans finished up 2 1/4 at 1372 3/4, 15 off the high and 10 1/2 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 3 at 1368 1/2. This was 11 up from the low and 14 1/4 off the high. December Soymeal closed down 1.1 at 429.3. This was 2.5 up from the low and 8.3 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished up 0.26 at 44.78, 0.13 off the high and 0.42 up from the low. Fresh new crop demand helped to spark a rally for the soybean market today but traders were still cautious ahead of the weekend given the forecast that calls for a better chance for rainfall into next week. Old vs. new crop spreads were at it again to the upside with cash basis levels holding above delivery values as the market approaches first notice day for the September option. New crop spreads edged lower throughout the day. The 5 day weather forecast is mostly unchanged from yesterday. Next week offers up cooler temps compared to this week and the high pressure ridge may begin to break down which could bring light showers across the Corn Belt. The heaviest rainfall looks to be in the northern Midwest and far Eastern Corn Belt. Most of the totals look to be a quarter to a half inch. More rainfall is needed and the scorching heat this week has already begun to take its toll on the crop in some areas. The trade is having a difficult time projecting potential yields at this point but data shows that there is correlation between dry conditions in August and final yields vs. trend-line yields. Demand remains strong for the new crop year and China bought another 120,000 tonnes of soybeans overnight. The sales trend continues to suggest relentless demand from China and perhaps buyers were covering needs as insurance against lower US yields going forward.
I get to answer these sort of question quite often when some traders ask me, "can rally some more ? market has reach all time high and super overbought !!" When it comes to market, it does not care to know whether the price has been overbought or rose to all time high. As long as there is a Buyer coming into the market and hit the Buy button, price can still rise further than you expected. Of course, it is the Buyers and Sellers perception that will move the market. And their perception can be either technical, fundamental data, news or all together. It is the perception of the traders that will ultimately decide whether the market will go up or down, not the news, the technical analysis nor the fundamental data and definitely not some stranger that tells you the market is going somewhere. Technical analysis is the only technique that allow you to trade objectively because price will be the main indicator or criteria for you to execute your perception. Technical analysis assume all traders perceptions are reflected in the price itself, nothing else. Up till today, the Bullish momentum on palm oil futures remain positive. Further signs of sustainable rally was the ascending volume accompanying the rally occur after the runaway gaps, three days ago. In other words, no major correction appear on the radar yet except the significant resistance level around 2,491~2,504 level based on previous high at late Jun at 2,494 and late March at 2,504 level.
Daily Pivot Point
R2=2511
R1=2494
S1=2450
S2=2423
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
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