Trapped Within These Walls FCPO 22nd April 2013

Monday, 22nd April 2013. Commodity futures is going to have tough time deciding it course of direction short term judging on recent price action, further brief available below. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks rose on Friday, curbing the worst weekly loss for the S&P 500 index SPX +0.88% since November, as quarterly earnings dominated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.07%rose 10.37 points to 14,547.51, down 2.1% from last Friday's close. The S&P 500 index added 13.64 points to 1,555.25, leaving it with a 2.1% weekly decline. The Nasdaq CompositeCOMP +1.25% advanced 39.69 points to 3,206.05, off 2.7% for the week."

"-Most Asian markets rose Friday as bargain buyers accumulated beaten-down stocks ahead of the weekend, taking a positive view on the rebound in commodity prices despite another day of losses on Wall Street. The Shanghai Composite CN:000001 +2.14% rallied 2.1% to extend weekly gains, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +2.33% jumped 2.3% to snap a a five-day losing streak. The Taiex XX:Y9999 +0.68%  rose 1.8% in Taipei, where heavyweight Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. got a boost from upbeat forecasts. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK +1.89%  climbed 0.7%, South Korea’s KospiKR:SEU -0.16%  added 0.4% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.35%  gained 0.2%."

"- Oil futures climbed back above $88 a barrel on Friday, as traders mulled the prospects for an output cut from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries after a recent slump in prices left oil with a loss of almost 4% on the week.

An OPEC official from Venezuela late Thursday suggested that the cartel may hold an emergency meeting in light of oil’s price drop, but other members of the group were skeptical that such a meeting would take place, according to media reports. May crude oil CLK3 -0.01% rose 28 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $88.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.  Prices climbed 1.2% on Thursday."

"-May Soybeans finished down 2 1/4 at 1428 1/4, 12 3/4 off the high and 6 1/4 up from the low. July Soybeans closed down 7 1/2 at 1382 1/2. This was 2 1/2 up from the low and 18 off the high.

May Soymeal closed up 1.4 at 412.4. This was 3.9 up from the low and 2.5 off the high. May Soybean Oil finished down 0.5 at 49.16, 0.73 off the high and 0.2 up from the low. May soybeans traded lower on the day but the November contract was the leader to the downside as traders anticipate corn acreage to be switched over to soybeans this spring. The cool and wet conditions in the Northern Plains have delayed planting progress and some expect the switch to be made if the weather patterns continue to keep farmers out of the fields. The July/November calendar spread traded higher on the day but saw a modest amount of pressure as traders took profits ahead of the weekend. Cash markets in the US remain firm with CIF and FOB basis values strong due to some locks on the Mississippi being closed this weekend because of flooding. Chinese soybean import data for March came in at 3.84 million tonnes, down from about 4.5 million that were expected. Many traders still believe that Chinese import demand is overstated at 61 million tonnes according to the USDA, that's down from 63 million tonnes in March. Many in the trade have penciled in demand near 58 million tonnes."

FCPO- Travelling Within These Range Before Any Breakout

The palm oil futures is likely hovering within the range shown on hourly chart above judging from previous Friday weaker close. The upper range will be located around 2,320 while lower range will be situated around 2,262 level, price should be travelling within these area likely for few sessions. Medium term technical perspective remain Bearish as market is still haunted by previous lower highs and lower lows candle formation and there is yet any significant sign for the benchmark July to recover yet. Unless there is any break out from the range or area mentioned above, palm oil futures is going to sit within these walls for the moment. News on decreased stock piles may help to support price if it fall too steep but we are still far away for the market to record any major recovery amid sluggish demand. Market is poised to open lower today due to weaker overnight closing value for Soy oil last Friday, further weakness is expected to take place if the benchmark July fall below 2,261 level. For today, pivot support for the benchmark July is located around 2,261 while resistance is pegged at 2,315~2,320.


Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2337
R1= 2315
S1= 2277
S2= 2261
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.